We have had some gloomy forecasts about the British economy recently with the Bank of England downgrading its own for growth in the immediate future. It says that growth in 2011 will be less than 3% compared with the previous forecast of 3.5%. Many independent forecasters think that is still over-optimistic. At the same time Germany’s GDP has leaped in the last quarter, so that might help to pull the UK up, but there may be some disadvantage on this side of the water in that the UK is weak in manufacturing and we may expect a further climb in unemployment, so fewer people will be buying.
The cuts to Government spending will account for the further losses of jobs and not only in the public sector, but also in the private sector as the State buys less products and services. There is also a trend towards higher unemployment in the US, partly seasonal, and although the administration has tried spending more and cutting less. My kitchen-sink economics cannot tell you who is right, but despite the personal debt figures in the UK rising my instinct tells me that it is more natural for the Government to be cutting its coat according to its cloth, which is deeply ingrained in the British psyche from Victorian days.
I keep hearing that people do not have money to spend and there is talk all the time of cash-flow problems for small business owners. I read the other day an article telling us that employees do not apparently go out so often for a drink with their colleagues after work on a Friday night or indeed any night. Much as I would like to think that is because the population is becoming more responsible over the imbibing of alcohol I suspect it is because they simply have less money to spend on alcohol or anything else. Alcohol is anyway cheaper in the supermarkets and perhaps there is more drinking at home.
One in ten pubs has closed in the last five years. There are no doubt several reasons for this, including the duty on alcohol, the competition from the shops, the recession and the easy answer, the ban on smoking.
I think the ban on smoking has helped drive the adaptability of the other pubs who are doing their best to survive. The magazine, The Publican, has published a survey stating that 52% of pub sales are now of food though there seems to be some dispute over the method of calculation. Certainly pub food sales are much higher.
We have seen a rise in gastro-pubs and there is excellent value to be had. The stale cheese sandwich and the chicken-in-a-basket are thankfully long gone as is the smoky atmosphere. A good pub meal is something to look forward to, no one feels obliged to buy loads of alcohol any more, and Sunday lunch at a pub is a pleasurable experience without the anticipated terror of an enormous bill. We can estimate and budget the cost.
What does this mean for the rest of us? I think the lesson for us and certainly for me is that we must adapt to what our clients and customers want. We must be prepared to do things differently, to do new things and stop trying to sell the old products and services that people may no longer want. Above all we must think about maximising profit not by raising our prices en bloc but by delivering value that people will pay for because we are giving them what they want.
That’s what I think. What do you think?
© Jon Stow 2010